CryptoExpires May 17, 2026
Creator

Ethereum Up or Down on May 17?

Probability

100¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+47.4pp

24h Vol

$68.5K

Liquidity

$135.5K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 17, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
100¢
May 15, 2026, 18:00 UTCMay 17, 2026, 18:58 UTC
updated 18:58:51 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-17T18-58Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 47pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 18:58Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Scheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 3h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation

    HIGH

Price movement

+47.4pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

updated 18:58:51 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 18:58:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT May 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT May 16 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 17 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

ethereum

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "ethereum" — matched the Crypto rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Ethereum Up or Down on May 17?"?

As of Sun, 17 May 2026 18:58:51 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +47.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$68.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $71.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $135.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket