Enormous-Belligerency
0x90816e2242028f95fb38c20bc56aac6763350b1e
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$326.15
Total PnL
$-453.07
Realised
$-18.26
Win rate
38%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Cerebras IPO before 2027?
241 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$241.00
$65.07
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
214 shares @ 44.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.53
$-9.63
- YES
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 26.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.63
$-0.68
- YES
Will the US strike Iran next?
1104 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-276.06
- YES
Will Oregon and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?
332 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-49.80
- YES
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
50 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
40 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-11.20
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - November 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
39 shares @ 43.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-16.94
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
37 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-9.25
- YES
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)
30 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMTrump cabinet member out by December 31, 2025?$1.00May 8, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?$1.00May 8, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2025?$1.00May 8, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?$2.00May 8, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?$2.01May 8, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?$4.00May 8, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?$4.00May 8, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$290.00May 8, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?$97.73Apr 21, 03:18 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?$131.26Apr 21, 03:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Apr 1, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 31, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 30, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 26, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 23, 00:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $114.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 21, 00:33 UTC
- Last active
- May 8, 03:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.