Gentle-Soliloquy
0x91d8f7b9c8d179ddc2b11912573565974da69e8d
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$8.91
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-421.68
Win rate
29%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
40 shares @ 24.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.91
$-0.59
- OVER
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5
45000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- OVER
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5
34251 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-44.97
- OVER
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 0.5
27000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-27.00
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Croatia?
10263 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-42.56
- OVER
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5
3254 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Switzerland?
2953 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-57.73
- OVER
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5
2121 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-88.92
- OVER
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5
1800 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?
1500 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$9.36Aug 9, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$9.50Aug 9, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?$9.35Aug 9, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?$9.54Aug 9, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$8.80Aug 9, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$9.73Aug 9, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$9.40Aug 9, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$9.50Aug 9, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?$8.48Aug 9, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?$9.71Aug 9, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?$9.02Aug 9, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?$9.73Aug 9, 16:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?$9.20Aug 9, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?$9.50Aug 9, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$8.68Aug 9, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$9.50Aug 9, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$9.18Aug 9, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$9.50Aug 9, 13:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$9.00Aug 9, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$9.50Aug 9, 11:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
38 closed markets, 29% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $9.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 9, 03:34 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 19:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.