Dim-Underwriting
0x91e517cc3687db44a31fa01cee27cdc540b10947
Wallet digest
Activity score
97/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
93
Open notional
$16.6K
Total PnL
$-733.63
Realised
$-1.5K
Win rate
75%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 93- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
3059 shares @ 75.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.3K
$45.88
- YES
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2440 shares @ 54.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.7K
$351.61
- YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
1093 shares @ 65.6¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$792.67
$74.99
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
700 shares @ 76.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$584.50
$52.50
- YES
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?
855 shares @ 86.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$560.02
$-175.27
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
663 shares @ 69.6¢·now 81.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$540.28
$78.60
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 by December 31, 2026?
545 shares @ 77.1¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$485.05
$64.76
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?
851 shares @ 53.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$480.51
$29.27
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
700 shares @ 59.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$423.50
$10.50
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$370.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$0.00Jul 16, 20:18 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on July 16?$0.00Jul 16, 20:18 UTC
- REDEEMPalantir (PLTR) Up or Down on July 16?$30.00Jul 16, 20:18 UTC
- REDEEMNetflix (NFLX) Up or Down on July 16?$85.00Jul 16, 20:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) close above $325 on July 16?$20.00Jul 16, 20:17 UTC
- REDEEMAirbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on July 16?$36.00Jul 16, 20:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $260 on July 16?$20.00Jul 16, 20:17 UTC
- REDEEMSPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 16?$10.00Jul 16, 20:17 UTC
- REDEEMApple (AAPL) Up or Down on July 16?$10.00Jul 16, 20:17 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on July 16?$10.00Jul 16, 20:17 UTC
- REDEEMAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 16?$50.00Jul 16, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYPalantir (PLTR) Up or Down on July 16?$20.66Jul 16, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetflix (NFLX) Up or Down on July 16?$11.00Jul 16, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetflix (NFLX) Up or Down on July 16?$16.72Jul 16, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetflix (NFLX) Up or Down on July 16?$13.97Jul 16, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetflix (NFLX) Up or Down on July 16?$16.00Jul 16, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on July 16?$60.54Jul 16, 18:59 UTC
- TRADESELLPalantir (PLTR) Up or Down on July 16?$15.95Jul 16, 18:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$4.75Jul 16, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$3.67Jul 16, 18:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $19.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 15:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 20:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.