Second-Hand-Dissemination
0x9259ca970d89db675e260597bb0e283a0fbcc2d3
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$954.44
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$99.73
Win rate
60%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
125 shares @ 76.1¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$81.87
$-13.27
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
102 shares @ 78.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$71.90
$-7.63
- ANTHROPIC + OPENAI
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
169 shares @ 61.6¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$71.11
$-33.12
- META
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?
70 shares @ 72.9¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$57.69
$7.00
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
100 shares @ 55.8¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$50.50
$-5.30
- ANTHROPIC
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
60 shares @ 81.9¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$47.40
$-1.75
- NO
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
58 shares @ 69.4¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.17
$5.59
- NO
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
60 shares @ 69.2¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.59
$4.10
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
300 shares @ 14.5¢·now 14.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$43.05
$-0.55
- NO
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?
55 shares @ 64.2¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$41.52
$6.22
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$65.80Jul 22, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$36.92Jul 22, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET$13.51Jul 22, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET$1.85Jul 22, 03:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$30.08Jul 22, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$16.56Jul 22, 03:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$3.51Jul 22, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$1.24Jul 22, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$2.45Jul 22, 03:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$7.52Jul 22, 03:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$0.55Jul 22, 03:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$0.72Jul 22, 03:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$10.00Jul 22, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$10.35Jul 22, 03:41 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$23.42Jul 22, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$5.00Jul 22, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$12.79Jul 22, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$2.85Jul 22, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$1.92Jul 22, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$1.90Jul 22, 03:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $9.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 03:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 04:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.