Waterlogged-Possibility
0x92b040788387a2b6bda49c078573f87216c07582
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
44
Open notional
$150.82
Total PnL
$-3.58
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
16 shares @ 64.5¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.31
$0.31
- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
10 shares @ 96.6¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$10.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
25 shares @ 39.3¢·now 34.6¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$8.80
$-1.20
- NO
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
25 shares @ 39.5¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$8.73
$-1.27
- NO
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 74.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.11
$2.00
- NO
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
9 shares @ 76.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.05
$0.05
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.21
$1.21
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine governor race in 2026?
5 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.10
$0.10
- NO
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
5 shares @ 96.9¢·now 97.8¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$5.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$5.04
$0.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$5.01Jul 14, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$14.74Jul 13, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$0.00Jul 13, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$1.00Jul 12, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$1.00Jul 12, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$2.16Jul 12, 19:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 12, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$6.94Jul 12, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$5.07Jul 12, 02:02 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$0.00Jul 12, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?$1.03Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$2.00Jul 11, 22:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$0.42Jul 11, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$1.04Jul 11, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$0.20Jul 11, 14:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$1.05Jul 11, 13:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$1.98Jul 11, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$0.14Jul 11, 12:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$1.08Jul 11, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$0.30Jul 11, 12:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 03:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 01:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.