Flickering-Tract
0x92ead5c2e56c7854f0baf8100f83029c0d77c4a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$63.32
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-279.93
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
49 shares @ 26.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$48.52
$35.90
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
60 shares @ 24.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.80
$0.30
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
776 shares @ 62.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-482.67
- NO
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
429 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- NO
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?
385 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?
300 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-51.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
267 shares @ 53.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-143.47
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
229 shares @ 41.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-95.87
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?
215 shares @ 41.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-90.20
- YES
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
200 shares @ 49.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-98.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$13.00Apr 19, 23:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$51.77Apr 19, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$2.20Apr 7, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?$45.00Apr 7, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$400.00Apr 6, 14:47 UTC
- REDEEMHouthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?$164.05Apr 6, 14:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?$264.67Apr 6, 14:46 UTC
- REDEEMUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?$5.00Apr 1, 20:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?$10.00Apr 1, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$80.00Mar 31, 18:55 UTC
- TRADESELLIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$62.79Mar 31, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYHouthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?$70.00Mar 30, 18:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$85.86Mar 30, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$10.00Mar 30, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?$200.00Mar 30, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$77.80Mar 30, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?$126.34Mar 30, 14:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?$10.00Mar 27, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?$100.00Mar 27, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$20.67Mar 27, 17:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
25/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $45.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 15:55 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 19, 23:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.