Wallet digest

Activity score

60/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$4.6K

Total PnL

$-1.3K

Realised

$-21.59

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 33

YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
4004 shares @ 35.1¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026
$1.7K
$257.07
YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
839 shares @ 21.0¢·now 51.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$434.96
$258.65
YES
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
2340 shares @ 23.9¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$315.90
$-244.13
YES
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?
316 shares @ 19.6¢·now 77.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026
$244.90
$182.96
NO
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
300 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$241.50
$91.50
NO
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
216 shares @ 65.2¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026
$210.67
$69.65
YES
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat?
382 shares @ 50.7¢·now 52.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026
$198.70
$4.75
YES
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
350 shares @ 50.5¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$180.25
$3.61
YES
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
315 shares @ 63.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$174.82
$-23.63
YES
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?
358 shares @ 52.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026
$168.08
$-17.81

Recent activity

YIELD$0.16Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.16Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.15Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.15Jul 10, 00:14 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity30 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence7 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry58 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 11, 00:13 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 2 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:50:06 UTC·src:Polymarket Data