Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
Probability
26¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$6.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5993.8h
- 06:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5994h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 28¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).