Pleasant-Program-Inbox
0x948552bd11a2965a20bbf26c4ac014153aa5fc90
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$29.84
Total PnL
$-179.23
Realised
$-1.55
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 91.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.00
$-3.20
- YES
Will "Rigged" be in the headlines this week?
60 shares @ 21.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$6.90
$-5.70
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
5 shares @ 72.8¢·now 79.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.97
$0.33
- NO
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
40 shares @ 13.5¢·now 7.7¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$3.08
$-2.32
- NO
Will "A Toxic Love Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
50 shares @ 11.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.78
$-4.72
- YES
Will Boeing say "Airbus" during earnings call?
20 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.10
$-4.10
- YES
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in July?
2 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.01
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 28?
14 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.01
$-6.43
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
30 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
22 shares @ 44.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-9.96
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 29?$9.99Jul 28, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 29?$9.98Jul 28, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on July 29?$9.99Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$2.40Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$1.40Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on July 29?$9.98Jul 28, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$1.60Jul 28, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 28?$6.61Jul 28, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.98Jul 28, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$2.22Jul 28, 08:34 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.89Jul 28, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$2.22Jul 28, 08:33 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$1.10Jul 28, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$0.06Jul 28, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 08:23 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$2.23Jul 28, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$0.60Jul 28, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$2.42Jul 28, 08:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 06:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.