Overdue-Sideboard
0x94b08a4aa9c9ccfb9c8fecf6891e1ffff0809d34
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$9.3K
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$341.60
Win rate
75%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
6019 shares @ 84.8¢·now 79.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$4.8K
$-349.17
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
2603 shares @ 56.1¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$-15.84
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
1724 shares @ 52.8¢·now 54.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$931.20
$21.20
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
800 shares @ 91.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$796.80
$61.82
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
600 shares @ 79.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$540.00
$66.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
325 shares @ 41.3¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$323.86
$189.61
- NO
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
300 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$286.65
$19.65
- YES
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?
248 shares @ 89.1¢·now 85.7¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$212.48
$-8.38
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
1 shares @ 83.7¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.36
$0.17
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.96
$0.12
Recent activity
- REWARD$2.51Jul 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$323.90Jul 19, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$150.10Jul 19, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$279.28Jul 19, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$455.70Jul 19, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$400.00Jul 19, 05:40 UTC
- REWARD$2.15Jul 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$160.00Jul 18, 19:21 UTC
- REWARD$2.42Jul 18, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in June?$0.00Jul 15, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$150.00Jul 15, 04:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–$2.75 in June?$60.33Jul 14, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$360.25Jul 14, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$600.00Jul 14, 08:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$206.10Jul 14, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?$3.59Jul 12, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?$4.53Jul 11, 13:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?$146.49Jul 11, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 75 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?$150.00Jul 11, 11:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $161.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 13:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.