0x950626c3d8064f2a5770f09dc267d8c5a3f5c548
0x950626c3d8064f2a5770f09dc267d8c5a3f5c548
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$40.01
Total PnL
$-409.05
Realised
$-40.62
Win rate
8%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
29 shares @ 18.5¢·now 27.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$7.95
$2.63
- YES
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
2220 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$7.77
$3.33
- YES
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
16 shares @ 24.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.04
$0.24
- YES
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?
84 shares @ 6.4¢·now 4.8¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$4.01
$-1.40
- YES
Deel IPO before 2027?
65 shares @ 14.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.92
$-6.17
- YES
Will Chainlink reach $20 by December 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 32.1¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.02
$-1.80
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?
51 shares @ 7.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.91
$-1.66
- YES
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
4 shares @ 30.2¢·now 36.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.36
$0.24
- YES
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
13 shares @ 20.4¢·now 9.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.26
$-1.40
- YES
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company?
7 shares @ 31.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.12
$-1.12
Recent activity
- REDEEMPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?$0.00Aug 1, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$0.00Aug 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $82,500 in July?$0.00Aug 1, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 11?$1.25Jul 11, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 11?$1.34Jul 11, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 11?$1.84Jul 11, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 11?$1.20Jul 11, 06:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 11?$5.60Jul 11, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 11?$5.45Jul 11, 03:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 10?$5.47Jul 10, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 10?$5.00Jul 10, 01:30 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.72Jul 9, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 9?$1.34Jul 9, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 9?$1.31Jul 9, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 9?$67.69Jul 9, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 9?$2.50Jul 9, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 8?$31.23Jul 8, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 8?$8.97Jul 8, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 8?$13.65Jul 8, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 8?$10.79Jul 8, 07:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $11.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 07:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 06:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.