Mundane-Crinoline
0x95b18721fd39b74cbc625a840d73eb149948e3b6
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-487.86
Realised
$-312.74
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?
1237 shares @ 77.3¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$952.48
$-4.16
- YES
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
686 shares @ 87.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$607.12
$7.15
- NO
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?
227 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$209.97
$3.41
- NO
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
179 shares @ 88.8¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$159.89
$1.29
- NO
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?
71 shares @ 96.3¢·now 97.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$68.83
$0.43
- NO
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?
9 shares @ 97.6¢·now 96.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.94
$-0.08
- YES
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10785 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-131.89
- NO
Will Citrea launch a token by June 30, 2026?
437 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.00
$-43.48
- NO
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?
180 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.00
$-7.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?$88.36Aug 14, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYPredict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?$516.88Aug 14, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYArc FDV above $500M one day after launch?$146.00Aug 2, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYArc FDV above $500M one day after launch?$158.58Aug 2, 08:29 UTC
- REDEEMGRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?$1.1KJul 31, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLPrintr FDV above $1B one day after launch?$57.23Jul 31, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYArc FDV above $500M one day after launch?$23.76Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYArc FDV above $500M one day after launch?$49.94Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYArc FDV above $500M one day after launch?$34.50Jul 31, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYGRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?$887.39Jul 28, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYGRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?$52.36Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYArc FDV above $500M one day after launch?$460.93Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYArc FDV above $500M one day after launch?$95.31Jul 28, 16:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$400.00Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $196.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 17:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.