Adolescent-Trousers
0x95bf944dd22691364154fb436ee922798566e00b
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
77
Open notional
$326.6K
Total PnL
$13.0K
Realised
$1.5K
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 77- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
75301 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$75.2K
$188.93
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
55932 shares @ 80.9¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$47.8K
$2.6K
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
46737 shares @ 82.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$40.4K
$1.8K
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
23458 shares @ 91.1¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.4K
$2.0K
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
37535 shares @ 54.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$21.6K
$1.3K
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
21454 shares @ 78.3¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.8K
$31.67
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
16182 shares @ 92.7¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$15.7K
$688.09
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
14516 shares @ 92.1¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$14.1K
$675.17
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
14045 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.7K
$210.67
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
14389 shares @ 69.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.0K
$1.0K
Recent activity
- YIELD$9.21Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$5.0KJul 28, 16:04 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.17Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$9.24Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$1.06Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$133.38Jul 27, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$54.72Jul 27, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?$29.64Jul 27, 17:13 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.45Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$9.19Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.44Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$914.13Jul 26, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$378.10Jul 26, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$199.00Jul 26, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$19.9KJul 26, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$398.00Jul 26, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$199.00Jul 26, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$995.00Jul 26, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.30Jul 26, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$183.08Jul 26, 00:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
$10.0K · 64% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $1.5K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 18:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.