Fluffy-Classmate
0x95c2457b36529ab8717e2db80b936b6533a8485b
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
181
Open notional
$263.47
Total PnL
$-927.80
Realised
$23.75
Win rate
23%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 181- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
68 shares @ 91.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$67.62
$5.82
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
59 shares @ 42.5¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$26.19
$1.18
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
12 shares @ 83.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.85
$1.85
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
12 shares @ 82.8¢·now 87.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.60
$0.60
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?
8 shares @ 65.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.69
$1.69
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
7 shares @ 84.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$6.20
$0.21
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
6 shares @ 81.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.07
$1.07
- NO
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
7 shares @ 69.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.05
$1.05
- NO
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$5.56
$0.56
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
8 shares @ 64.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$5.43
$0.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$5.00Jul 29, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$5.00Jul 29, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$5.00Jul 29, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$5.00Jul 28, 22:52 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$20.39Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$5.00Jul 28, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$5.00Jul 28, 22:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$5.32Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$7.46Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.55Jul 28, 01:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$12.43Jul 28, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$5.43Jul 27, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$14.55Jul 27, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$9.41Jul 27, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?$5.00Jul 27, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$33.00Jul 27, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$5.00Jul 27, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$14.39Jul 27, 15:38 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?$5.17Jul 26, 22:44 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$56.33Jul 26, 21:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $8.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 15:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.