Worrisome-Fat-Counterpart
0x95d435fb3a866b8f9cad5e246dc784f249df72a2
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
120
Open notional
$33.31
Total PnL
$-120.23
Realised
$-25.25
Win rate
0%
44 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 120- YES
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 2.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.70
$3.70
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.73
$1.73
- YES
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$1.84
$0.84
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 68.6¢·now 92.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.35
$0.35
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.33
$0.33
- YES
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.30
$0.30
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 66.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.28
$0.22
- NO
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?
1 shares @ 97.3¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.27
$-0.03
- NO
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 73.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.27
$0.27
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.26
$0.26
Recent activity
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.79Aug 4, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$1.12Aug 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.01Jul 29, 21:57 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.79Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- REDEEMPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$1.18Jul 19, 23:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$6.19Jul 6, 13:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.32Jul 6, 13:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June?$1.10Jul 4, 06:08 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$1.41Jul 1, 14:33 UTC
- REDEEMRussian strike on Poland by June 30?$1.02Jul 1, 08:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?$1.23Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle over $95 on the final trading day of June 2026?$1.39Jul 1, 07:11 UTC
- REDEEMHantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?$1.78Jul 1, 06:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?$2.91Jul 1, 06:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?$1.05Jul 1, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$1.79Jul 1, 06:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?$1.01Jul 1, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$1.41Jul 1, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?$1.59Jul 1, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$1.04Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 44 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
44 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $1.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 06:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 18:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 44 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.