0x95e8e0edb44b3595c63643b49944b23a146281ef
0x95e8e0edb44b3595c63643b49944b23a146281ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$92.52
Total PnL
$-13.48
Realised
$-4.72
Win rate
31%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 90.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.69
$0.24
- NO
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 95.5¢·now 94.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.64
$-0.06
- YES
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?
7 shares @ 85.0¢·now 89.1¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$6.62
$0.31
- NO
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?
7 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.28
$0.03
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
7 shares @ 80.3¢·now 82.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.95
$0.14
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
4 shares @ 96.5¢·now 96.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.02
$0.02
- NO
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
4 shares @ 92.8¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.88
$-0.03
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
4 shares @ 89.6¢·now 91.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.59
$0.07
- NO
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 94.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.13
$-0.01
- NO
Will Pakistan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
3 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.97
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?$1.01Jul 29, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?$1.02Jul 29, 10:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gedion Timothewos be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$1.30Jul 29, 10:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?$1.03Jul 29, 10:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?$0.05Jul 29, 10:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?$0.01Jul 29, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win the next Chukotka Autonomous Okrug Parliament elections?$1.01Jul 29, 09:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$0.18Jul 29, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$0.31Jul 29, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$1.01Jul 29, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$0.09Jul 29, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$0.34Jul 29, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$0.13Jul 29, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$0.31Jul 29, 07:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$0.03Jul 29, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another artist be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?$1.04Jul 29, 07:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?$1.01Jul 29, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?$1.03Jul 29, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Michel Basquiat be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?$1.06Jul 29, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.01Jul 29, 06:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
31% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 09:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.