Urban-Brotherinlaw
0x9630df5234bf9d9cdf60136645d97b9538394005
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
178
Open notional
$283.46
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-50.76
Win rate
80%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 178- NO
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
197 shares @ 88.9¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$194.26
$19.52
- NO
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?
60 shares @ 57.3¢·now 68.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$41.10
$6.70
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
20 shares @ 72.7¢·now 74.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.86
$0.32
- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?
45 shares @ 37.6¢·now 14.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.37
$-10.74
- YES
Claudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026?
10 shares @ 32.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.42
$0.10
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 60.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.82
$-0.18
- YES
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
3 shares @ 32.3¢·now 73.4¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$2.27
$1.27
- YES
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
5 shares @ 44.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2028$2.02
$-0.17
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
10 shares @ 17.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.56
$-1.24
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$1.00Jul 29, 06:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$1.00Jul 29, 06:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$1.00Jul 29, 06:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$1.00Jul 29, 06:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?$39.39Jul 28, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYClaudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026?$3.10Jul 28, 15:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?$17.79Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?$15.60Jul 28, 00:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?$11.70Jul 27, 23:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?$1.37Jul 27, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill it rain during the Hungarian Grand Prix?$4.55Jul 27, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$2.67Jul 27, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stefano Pioli be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$0.92Jul 27, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$4.42Jul 27, 14:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$5.51Jul 27, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Antonio Conte be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$1.71Jul 27, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$9.62Jul 27, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$2.50Jul 27, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$1.95Jul 27, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.47Jul 27, 08:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $16.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 12:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 06:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.