Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
Probability
57¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$216.39
Liquidity
$23.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 23530h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 23530.2h
- 13:46SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 23530h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:45PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 57¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 56¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 56¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 56¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 56¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 55¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 56¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 60¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 60¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 59¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 57¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 57¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 17.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 56¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 55¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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