Fatherly-Typhoon
0x96998b06715374f4a528137c2927e57f8c2e7ae7
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$14.97
Total PnL
$-4.32
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.75
$0.00
- NO
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.95
$0.00
- NO
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.74
$0.00
- YES
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.73
$0.02
- NO
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?
2 shares @ 98.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$1.59
$0.02
- NO
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.34
$0.00
- NO
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?
1 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$1.34
$0.02
- NO
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$1.28
$0.01
- NO
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.24
$0.00
- YES
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.18
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,200 July 6-12?$1.41Jul 13, 04:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on July 11?$1.18Jul 11, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on July 11?$1.18Jul 11, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 July 6-12?$1.41Jul 11, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?$1.13Jul 8, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 7?$1.12Jul 5, 09:44 UTC
- REDEEMTariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?$1.15Jul 2, 07:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30?$1.34Jul 1, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30?$1.34Jun 29, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYTariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?$1.14Jun 29, 08:16 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.63Jun 23, 15:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 15, 2026?$1.61Jun 16, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?$1.63Jun 15, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 15, 2026?$1.61Jun 15, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?$2.75Jun 1, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?$1.71May 9, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYCongress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30?$1.74Apr 30, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$1.27Apr 29, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?$1.32Apr 29, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026?$1.57Apr 15, 07:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 12, 01:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 04:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.