Phony-Covariate
0x9701883956edae27b5a1763e968e11249cefc051
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-678.12
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
3066 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-76.00
- NO
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
2728 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.55
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
1429 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?
1289 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-221.79
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
810 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-12.96
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?
770 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-8.66
- NO
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
544 shares @ 50.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-275.60
- YES
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
464 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
249 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.54
- NO
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
182 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.16
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?$4.26Jun 9, 01:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$37.18Jun 9, 01:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$69.23Jun 9, 01:15 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$109.36Jun 9, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30?$10.37May 28, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$51.58May 28, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$51.58May 28, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$116.80May 22, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$30.50May 11, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$6.50May 11, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$15.17May 8, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$9.82May 7, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?$1.14May 7, 07:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$75.86May 7, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$113.80May 7, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$5.60May 5, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$28.80May 5, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$15.17May 5, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$0.90May 3, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?$2.50May 2, 22:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $46.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 10, 10:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 9, 01:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.