Back-Physics
0x99012d12a47cb06e777cbacb156dbd82edfc6046
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$90.8K
Total PnL
$-12.1K
Realised
$303.81
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
47995 shares @ 89.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$43.9K
$954.14
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
13482 shares @ 96.3¢·now 96.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$13.0K
$46.31
- NO
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
8308 shares @ 89.5¢·now 96.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$8.0K
$534.21
- NO
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
8982 shares @ 84.3¢·now 87.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$7.9K
$284.10
- YES
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
8040 shares @ 80.1¢·now 83.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$6.7K
$229.52
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
2201 shares @ 84.5¢·now 93.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$191.22
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
2587 shares @ 62.6¢·now 69.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.8K
$178.47
- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
5125 shares @ 34.3¢·now 34.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.7K
$-12.02
- NO
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
2679 shares @ 67.9¢·now 65.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$1.7K
$-77.29
- NO
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
2147 shares @ 69.5¢·now 78.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$1.7K
$182.54
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$63.46Jul 29, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$10.01Jul 29, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$10.01Jul 29, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$10.03Jul 29, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$10.03Jul 29, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$10.07Jul 29, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$10.07Jul 29, 17:32 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$66.89Jul 29, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$4.55Jul 29, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$13.65Jul 29, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$10.10Jul 29, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$10.09Jul 29, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$10.10Jul 29, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$10.12Jul 29, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$152.10Jul 29, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$50.05Jul 29, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$50.05Jul 29, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$50.05Jul 29, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$265.51Jul 29, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$12.89Jul 29, 09:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $148.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 17:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.