Murky-Freak
0x99984e22205053950eb25453779267bcc1aee858
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$331.63
Total PnL
$213.88
Realised
$123.27
Win rate
90%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will B8 Make a Roster Change before September?
70 shares @ 53.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$44.16
$7.01
- YES
Enhanced Breakers 1: Thor Bjornsson to Break Deadlift Record?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 18.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$37.40
$35.40
- NO
California Clinic Funding Proposition
50 shares @ 62.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$32.25
$1.25
- NO
Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
50 shares @ 48.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.06
$6.01
- NO
Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31?
66 shares @ 14.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$28.71
$19.47
- YES
California Immunology Research Bond Proposition
51 shares @ 59.1¢·now 49.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$24.84
$-5.12
- YES
Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31?
32 shares @ 34.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$23.89
$12.92
- NO
Claudio Lotito sells Lazio in 2026?
33 shares @ 37.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.25
$8.07
- NO
Will Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August?
19 shares @ 59.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$13.56
$2.37
- YES
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
40 shares @ 21.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.60
$4.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9?$9.36Jul 29, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9?$10.15Jul 29, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYCalifornia Immunology Research Bond Proposition$3.96Jul 29, 08:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August?$1.00Jul 29, 05:46 UTC
- REDEEM2026 MLS All-Star: Relay Challenge Winner$0.00Jul 29, 05:26 UTC
- REWARD$1.03Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 MLS All-Star: Relay Challenge Winner$24.08Jul 28, 23:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Iran" 2+ times during Tele-Rally?$43.32Jul 28, 22:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Iran" 2+ times during Tele-Rally?$34.53Jul 28, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" 2+ times during Tele-Rally?$46.49Jul 28, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hong Kong have less than 425mm of precipitation in August?$12.04Jul 28, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$46.24Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$6.02Jul 28, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$5.76Jul 28, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$5.87Jul 28, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$20.43Jul 28, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$1.80Jul 28, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$26.64Jul 28, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$3.06Jul 28, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy meets with Netanyahu by Thursday?$11.28Jul 28, 17:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $13.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 06:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 11:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.