Bumpy-Flintlock
0x9bab4372586057292848634f8ac5994ecd30e6a2
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
117
Open notional
$371.27
Total PnL
$-787.38
Realised
$-13.37
Win rate
56%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 117- NO
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in July 2026?
145 shares @ 90.6¢·now 95.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$137.71
$6.61
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
78 shares @ 92.4¢·now 96.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$74.86
$2.87
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
54 shares @ 79.1¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.15
$-0.35
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
37 shares @ 82.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$34.57
$4.57
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
22 shares @ 82.4¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$21.08
$3.08
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?
10 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.15
$0.05
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
19 shares @ 25.8¢·now 31.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$6.15
$1.15
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
19 shares @ 26.3¢·now 28.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$5.40
$0.40
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.72
$-0.28
- NO
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?
6 shares @ 90.0¢·now 81.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.53
$-0.47
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$2.41Jul 28, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$2.02Jul 28, 02:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 02:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$35.77Jul 28, 02:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$5.01Jul 28, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$20.03Jul 28, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$10.01Jul 28, 02:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 02:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$42.04Jul 28, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.00Jul 28, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$10.01Jul 28, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$10.01Jul 28, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$20.04Jul 28, 02:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$30.30Jul 28, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$10.01Jul 28, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$20.01Jul 28, 02:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$32.03Jul 28, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$10.05Jul 28, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET$20.08Jul 28, 02:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $9.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 01:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 02:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.