Mindless-Elm
0x9bf8d80f65c89faaf7146c8949b3667092f6c7af
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$578.36
Total PnL
$119.06
Realised
$-4.09
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
238 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$238.00
$54.74
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
258 shares @ 52.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$233.49
$99.33
- NO
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
54 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.24
$1.40
- NO
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07?
65 shares @ 79.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$31.52
$-19.82
- YES
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
53 shares @ 38.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.21
$-11.93
- YES
No one announced as next James Bond?
4 shares @ 33.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.00
$2.68
- YES
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
19 shares @ 38.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.71
$-3.52
- NO
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 53.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.62
$1.50
- NO
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
2 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.00
$0.02
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 45.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.31
$-1.16
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stephen Heidt win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?$1.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEM1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ciprian Ciucu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Cup?$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Salsa Tekila win the Orderly trading competition?$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill BYU make the College Football Playoff?$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "November 5th" or "Election" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - February 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tulane make the College Football Playoff?$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $600M and $650M at market close on IPO day?$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMAberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMBlackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers$400.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMAl Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 18, 3AM ET$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$540.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)$0.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?$595.00Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $289.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 16:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.