0x9c2a5f2cff8f14142034aed312c4782a3ea47678
0x9c2a5f2cff8f14142034aed312c4782a3ea47678
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
115
Open notional
$70.92
Total PnL
$-260.63
Realised
$4.27
Win rate
42%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 115- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
43 shares @ 14.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.79
$14.79
- YES
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?
8 shares @ 72.4¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.00
$0.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
60 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.70
$-0.30
- NO
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 15.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.68
$4.71
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
29 shares @ 20.6¢·now 17.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.08
$-0.92
- YES
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?
113 shares @ 1.8¢·now 3.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.07
$2.07
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
112 shares @ 3.6¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.62
$-0.38
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
12 shares @ 17.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.47
$1.47
- YES
Trump out as President by July 31?
857 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 19.3¢·now 24.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.57
$0.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) close at <$325 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 20 – Jul 24?$2.02Jul 24, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) finish week of July 20 above $325?$2.02Jul 24, 19:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$6.67Jul 24, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) finish week of July 20 above $315?$2.02Jul 24, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$2.12Jul 24, 17:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Green New Scam" in July?$2.00Jul 24, 16:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$2.04Jul 24, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?$2.08Jul 24, 16:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing?$8.09Jul 23, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Green New Scam" in July?$2.02Jul 23, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing?$2.02Jul 23, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet 2 Winner: Hsu/Watanabe vs Milavsky/Shick$2.05Jul 23, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing?$2.02Jul 23, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing?$2.02Jul 23, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing?$2.02Jul 23, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$2.09Jul 23, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$2.02Jul 23, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$2.02Jul 21, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.10Jul 21, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$2.02Jul 21, 15:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $2.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 18:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 19:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.