Crowded-Abolishment
0x9c6f80b8555f6723f252246ff39219de5ff6d83f
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$258.46
Total PnL
$-970.05
Realised
$-91.96
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?
208 shares @ 26.4¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$78.24
$23.24
- NO
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%?
59 shares @ 85.5¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$57.24
$7.24
- YES
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?
104 shares @ 31.4¢·now 44.9¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$46.47
$13.97
- YES
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
48 shares @ 52.5¢·now 70.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.35
$8.35
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
47 shares @ 42.4¢·now 23.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$11.29
$-8.71
- YES
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
12 shares @ 81.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$11.11
$1.11
- YES
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
66 shares @ 45.3¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.96
$-23.04
- YES
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%?
104 shares @ 9.6¢·now 5.7¢·exp Jan 12, 2027$5.91
$-4.09
- YES
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
401 shares @ 7.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$4.41
$-25.59
- YES
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
43 shares @ 23.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.48
$-6.52
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?$11.63Jul 9, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?$18.70Jul 9, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?$20.26Jul 9, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?$26.83Jul 9, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by April 30?$34.09Jul 9, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by May 31?$83.77Jul 9, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?$163.34Jul 9, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$193.47Jul 9, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?$100.00Apr 10, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?$50.00Apr 10, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10?$30.00Apr 9, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?$10.00Apr 9, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?$10.00Apr 9, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnthropic IPO before 2027?$25.00Apr 9, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?$10.00Apr 9, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?$30.00Apr 9, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027?$10.00Apr 9, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?$5.00Apr 9, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by May 31?$50.00Apr 9, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by April 30?$30.00Apr 9, 18:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $21.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 27, 00:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 20:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.