Velvety-Rutabaga
0x9ddfa4d5b954379a03d19f87df36b9820b862c83
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$7.3K
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$917.18
Win rate
51%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
4012 shares @ 89.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.8K
$180.68
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
1000 shares @ 91.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$895.01
$-15.00
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
759 shares @ 91.5¢·now 95.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$723.29
$28.24
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
800 shares @ 41.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$412.00
$84.00
- YES
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
300 shares @ 78.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$283.51
$48.50
- YES
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
636 shares @ 15.1¢·now 37.6¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$239.17
$143.12
- YES
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
345 shares @ 43.5¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$196.79
$46.75
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
200 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$189.01
$1.00
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
244 shares @ 63.2¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$148.77
$-5.41
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
952 shares @ 11.2¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$99.98
$-7.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?$60.50Jun 20, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$37.05Jun 20, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$1.95Jun 20, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$42.00Jun 20, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$910.00Jun 20, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$12.00Jun 20, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$6.00Jun 20, 02:29 UTC
- REWARD$4.05Jun 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$12.16Jun 19, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$188.00Jun 19, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$0.26Jun 19, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$2.77Jun 19, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?$16.00Jun 19, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$9.00Jun 19, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$6.00Jun 19, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$22.00Jun 19, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$282.20Jun 19, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$36.00Jun 19, 19:06 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$17.80Jun 19, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$100.91Jun 19, 18:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
51% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
39 closed markets, 51% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $64.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 13:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 10:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.