Calm-Charger
0x9dfe2f73d3c988a9d69df8fa0beb85651340b3dd
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
66
Open notional
$94.6K
Total PnL
$-28.1K
Realised
$-2.8K
Win rate
21%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 66- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
13148 shares @ 91.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.7K
$735.00
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
13699 shares @ 82.7¢·now 73.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$10.1K
$-1.2K
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
10000 shares @ 95.5¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.9K
$373.05
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
8000 shares @ 84.9¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.7K
$862.00
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
9316 shares @ 70.5¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.0K
$468.83
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
7947 shares @ 67.3¢·now 78.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.3K
$907.39
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
5341 shares @ 85.1¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.3K
$776.26
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
5000 shares @ 70.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.9K
$450.00
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
3000 shares @ 83.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.0K
$475.46
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
3918 shares @ 80.3¢·now 73.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.9K
$-262.58
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$602.69Jul 29, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$175.33Jul 29, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$163.04Jul 29, 05:38 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$14.41Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.46Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$8.09Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.77Jul 28, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.77Jul 28, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.76Jul 28, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$594.64Jul 28, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.7KJul 28, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.5KJul 28, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$82.15Jul 28, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$84.18Jul 28, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.4KJul 28, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.6KJul 28, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$13.51Jul 28, 16:55 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$17.55Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.46Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$0.32Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $281.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 23:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.