Shimmering-Oversight
0x9e39aa3dbb01a45318b1cb80fbb19d674b3bdfd9
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
164
Open notional
$12.69
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$-70.59
Win rate
0%
157 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 164- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
15 shares @ 65.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.69
$2.69
- RED FEET
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stage
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
2385 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
2349 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-594.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 9PM ET
1093 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-28.53
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
714 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?
517 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- NO
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
506 shares @ 19.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 9AM ET
311 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 31, 4PM ET$20.57Jul 31, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 30, 9AM ET$1.07Jul 30, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 30, 9AM ET$1.07Jul 30, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 9AM ET$1.07Jul 30, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 30, 9AM ET$2.14Jul 30, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$18.18Jul 30, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET$10.31Jul 30, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$0.00Jul 30, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$5.33Jul 30, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$0.00Jul 30, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$20.56Jul 29, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$20.87Jul 29, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$52.63Jul 29, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$20.87Jul 29, 11:23 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$21.48Jul 29, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$15.65Jul 29, 01:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$0.00Jul 29, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9PM ET$30.90Jul 29, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$10.37Jul 29, 01:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$10.32Jul 29, 01:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 157 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
157 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $10.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 05:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 20:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 157 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.