0x9ec533d37201117524626cdcd01e6a872ad6f3bb
0x9ec533d37201117524626cdcd01e6a872ad6f3bb
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$116.28
Total PnL
$0.49
Realised
$-6.85
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
72 shares @ 66.7¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$60.48
$12.47
- NO
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
23 shares @ 83.9¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.27
$1.99
- YES
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
59 shares @ 17.8¢·now 18.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.62
$0.10
- NO
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
8 shares @ 76.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.08
$0.00
- NO
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?
7 shares @ 83.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.74
$-0.07
- NO
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
6 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.58
$0.12
- YES
Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
29 shares @ 34.7¢·now 16.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.64
$-5.42
- YES
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
13 shares @ 11.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.91
$-0.52
- YES
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
20 shares @ 6.3¢·now 2.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.51
$-0.75
- YES
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
6 shares @ 17.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.45
$-0.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.66Jul 11, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$5.85Jun 21, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$3.14Jun 19, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYNord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?$1.26Jun 16, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? $5.46Jun 13, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? $1.43Jun 6, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$1.49Jun 3, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.01May 24, 20:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.28May 20, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$10.03May 20, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$1.05May 20, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$6.08May 20, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.10Apr 27, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLModi out by December 31, 2026?$5.47Apr 27, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYModi out by December 31, 2026?$5.40Apr 25, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?$8.58Apr 23, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$1.12Apr 17, 23:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$2.21Apr 15, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?$7.60Apr 15, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$6.96Apr 11, 07:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $5.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 21:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 05:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.