Rural-Graffiti
0x9ecbcdfb2203d37d5b9797df162b1ab376b04c3a
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$28.57
Total PnL
$-165.91
Realised
$-0.82
Win rate
40%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
13 shares @ 25.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$13.00
$9.75
- NO
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
10 shares @ 43.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$10.00
$5.70
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
3 shares @ 41.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.43
$1.35
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.67
$0.58
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?
10 shares @ 14.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.25
$-0.15
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?
33 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.16
$-0.81
- YES
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.03
$-1.09
- YES
Iran leadership change by July 31?
5 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.02
$-0.18
- YES
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?
8475 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-47.89
- NO
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
342 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-40.89
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$3.85Jul 17, 11:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$3.80Jul 17, 11:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$3.00Jul 15, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$4.50Jul 15, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$19.98Jul 15, 22:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?$6.92Jul 15, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$1.08Jul 15, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?$4.98Jul 14, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?$4.69Jul 14, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$0.67Jul 13, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?$4.42Jul 13, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?$3.65Jul 13, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.69Jul 13, 16:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$3.80Jul 13, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?$9.40Jul 13, 16:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$6.18Jul 13, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$1.01Jul 13, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?$4.48Jul 13, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$0.54Jul 13, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?$0.10Jul 13, 13:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 22:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 11:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.