Repulsive-Hobby
0x9f128322dcbc1ae5498a13e1222996b406712640
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$15.72
Total PnL
$-654.70
Realised
$3.82
Win rate
75%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
69 shares @ 78.9¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.97
$-46.70
- YES
Will Brayden Burries win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 4.3¢·exp May 31, 2027$7.08
$6.08
- YES
Will Petr Yan fight Sean O’Malley next?
5 shares @ 41.9¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.67
$-1.33
- YES
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
273 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani?
110 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?
106 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET
77 shares @ 83.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$0.00
$-64.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together, without a clear handshake?
67 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$10.06Jul 14, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brayden Burries win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?$1.05Jul 14, 01:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$11.06Jul 14, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?$4.00Jul 13, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Airlines say "Passenger" 10+ times during earnings call?$1.04Jul 13, 02:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Knockout," "Knock Out," or "Knocked Out" during Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista?$5.37Jul 13, 02:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Knockout," "Knock Out," or "Knocked Out" during Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista?$3.06Jul 11, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$10.13Jul 11, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$2.05Jul 11, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$15.78Jul 11, 19:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$3.02Jul 8, 07:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vance say "Resilience" or "Resiliency" during Milwaukee remarks?$3.01Jul 8, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vance say "Resilience" or "Resiliency" during Milwaukee remarks?$1.04Jul 8, 02:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026?$1.04Jul 8, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026?$2.01Jul 7, 07:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.92Jul 7, 07:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$5.04Jul 6, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?$0.33Jul 6, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?$0.78Jul 6, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?$2.81Jul 6, 18:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 16:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 01:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.