Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?
Probability
91¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+5.3pp
24h Vol
$4.3K
Liquidity
$31.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+10.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 91¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.8h
- 13:10SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:10PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 91¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 91¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 91¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 91¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 91¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 91¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.4pp
to 90¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 90¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 90¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 90¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 89¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 90¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 90¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 90¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 90¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 89¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.2pp
to 86¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.7pp
to 86¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.9pp
to 85¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.1pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 81¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 84¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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