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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?

Probability

91¢

1h

-0.1pp

24h

+5.3pp

24h Vol

$4.3K

Liquidity

$31.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+10.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:10
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Up 5pp over 24h

    Now 91¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 106.8h

    LOW
  • 13:10Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:10Price

    Probability up 6.9pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 6.7pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 7.1pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 91¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 6.4pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 6.3pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 6.8pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 6.7pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 5.8pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 5.9pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 5.9pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 5.9pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 5.8pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 5.8pp

    to 89¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.2pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.7pp

    to 86¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.9pp

    to 85¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 14.1pp

    to 84¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 81¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.6pp

    to 84¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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