Sociable-Needle
0x9f2a10f2967c9d63ed36f0880eea5fd7189d3706
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-795.38
Realised
$-141.05
Win rate
13%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
1128 shares @ 41.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp May 24, 2026$389.10
$-73.44
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
349 shares @ 80.7¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$263.37
$-18.21
- YES
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
423 shares @ 71.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2027$257.74
$-42.25
- NO
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
126 shares @ 69.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$63.22
$-24.02
- NO
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
73 shares @ 89.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$59.13
$-5.84
- YES
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B?
61 shares @ 95.2¢·now 93.4¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$56.83
$-1.10
- YES
Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q2 net interest income be above $950M?
59 shares @ 87.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$54.97
$3.27
- YES
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.6B?
91 shares @ 21.0¢·now 36.1¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$32.97
$13.79
- YES
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
50 shares @ 72.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$31.25
$-4.75
- NO
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B?
50 shares @ 79.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$26.75
$-12.75
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$24.03Jul 4, 03:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 3?$0.00Jul 4, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 3?$0.00Jul 4, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 4, 01:38 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.46Jul 4, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$0.48Jul 4, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$52.90Jul 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q2 net interest income be above $950M?$1.85Jul 3, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$19.94Jul 3, 21:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$272.45Jul 3, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$4.90Jul 3, 16:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$1.65Jul 3, 16:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027?$0.69Jul 3, 15:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by July 31?$7.18Jul 3, 15:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Letitia Plummer win the 2026 Harris County Judge election?$8.80Jul 3, 15:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $5B in 2026?$12.68Jul 3, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $550B by July 31?$22.50Jul 3, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 5?$8.92Jul 3, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?$13.88Jul 3, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?$14.00Jul 3, 10:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
40 closed markets, 13% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
$10.0K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $27.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 06:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 03:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.