Deadly-Tobacco
0x9f790dc21319ad8fded7b8d2e0d71462cf655487
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
139
Open notional
$90.24
Total PnL
$-3.6K
Realised
$1.3K
Win rate
4%
127 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 139- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
529 shares @ 17.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$66.18
$-23.82
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
438 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.06
$-10.94
- NO
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?
12102 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-400.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
10000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals
3000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?
2747 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
1186 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
974 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 127 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
127 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $52.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 127 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.