0x9fcfa5857423a85fc290ecb361fc0190daa66ce2
0x9fcfa5857423a85fc290ecb361fc0190daa66ce2
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$118.11
Total PnL
$-410.97
Realised
$19.52
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
116 shares @ 25.4¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$23.10
$-6.42
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
75 shares @ 25.4¢·now 28.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.88
$1.88
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
143 shares @ 11.2¢·now 14.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$19.95
$3.95
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
112 shares @ 27.7¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.75
$-19.20
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
58 shares @ 17.1¢·now 13.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.63
$-2.37
- YES
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
18 shares @ 43.3¢·now 40.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.48
$-0.52
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
156 shares @ 9.6¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.77
$-8.23
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
69 shares @ 17.4¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.49
$-7.51
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
15 shares @ 33.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.02
$-0.98
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
11 shares @ 27.5¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.11
$0.11
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$25.81Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $2.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 01:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.