Surprised-Sniffle
0x9ff03ec541f69848004ef36aff186a4fbb4d8dab
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-215.80
Realised
$-67.53
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
167 shares @ 15.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-26.13
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
125 shares @ 51.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-64.46
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
100 shares @ 15.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-15.47
- YES
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
73 shares @ 17.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-13.02
- YES
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
34 shares @ 19.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-6.82
- CONOR MCGREGOR
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
26 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-8.64
- YES
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30?
11 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.59
- NO
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?
6 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
- YES
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
5 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.35
- YES
Michael Olise: 1+ shots
5 shares @ 99.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.13
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$55.22Jul 31, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$54.94Jul 31, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$50.16Jul 31, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$4.69Jul 31, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$12.75Jul 31, 06:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$37.50Jul 31, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$3.75Jul 31, 04:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$3.75Jul 31, 04:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.18Jul 30, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$74.26Jul 30, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$36.50Jul 30, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$79.00Jul 30, 07:48 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$7.88Jul 30, 02:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.16Jul 30, 00:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$30.00Jul 29, 21:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?$4.98Jul 29, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$33.03Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$25.34Jul 29, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$4.32Jul 29, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$2.26Jul 29, 05:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $34.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 19:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 22:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.