Simple-Exercise
0xa03201c619f89158f3e57f48bf0304cf70a7679e
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-80.82
Realised
$72.59
Win rate
79%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
285 shares @ 67.1¢·now 69.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$197.83
$6.83
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
271 shares @ 73.9¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$190.76
$-9.24
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
335 shares @ 66.6¢·now 56.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$189.13
$-33.87
- NO
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by July 31, 2026?
132 shares @ 75.6¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$109.73
$9.73
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
122 shares @ 82.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$105.49
$5.49
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
147 shares @ 63.8¢·now 70.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$103.05
$9.05
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
133 shares @ 75.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$84.67
$-15.33
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
135 shares @ 74.1¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$77.64
$-22.36
- NO
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
79 shares @ 76.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$60.00
$0.00
- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
65 shares @ 83.7¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$54.85
$0.85
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by July 31, 2026?$50.00Jul 14, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by July 31, 2026?$50.00Jul 14, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?$100.69Jul 14, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLUS charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?$72.54Jul 14, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?$50.00Jul 14, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$50.00Jul 14, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?$43.33Jul 14, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$41.37Jul 14, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$15.00Jul 14, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$50.00Jul 14, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$54.35Jul 14, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 14?$1.00Jul 14, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?$5.00Jul 14, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$1.01Jul 14, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$100.00Jul 14, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?$100.00Jul 14, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?$60.00Jul 14, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$15.00Jul 14, 08:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$15.05Jul 14, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?$65.00Jul 14, 08:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $64.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 15:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 15:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.