Advanced-Pie
0xa07641d92ba22fe6d69a91533e7774ee90e1a82f
Wallet digest
Activity score
28/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-234.29
Realised
$-25.81
Win rate
0%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Fluent FDV above $500M one day after launch?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
178 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-101.65
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
21 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
21 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
16 shares @ 95.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
10 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UNDER
Games Total: O/U 3.5
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-5.94
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
5 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.01
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
5 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
5 shares @ 98.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$100.32Apr 25, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?$1.33Apr 25, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLFluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?$101.96Apr 25, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYFluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?$9.31Apr 25, 12:34 UTC
- TRADESELLFluent FDV above $150M one day after launch?$10.00Apr 25, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYFluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?$75.25Apr 25, 12:33 UTC
- TRADESELLFluent FDV above $300M one day after launch?$0.20Apr 25, 12:32 UTC
- TRADESELLFluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?$3.02Apr 25, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYFluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?$9.00Apr 25, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYFluent FDV above $200M one day after launch?$6.00Apr 25, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYFluent FDV above $150M one day after launch?$30.00Apr 25, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYFluent FDV above $300M one day after launch?$1.00Apr 25, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFluent FDV above $500M one day after launch?$1.00Apr 24, 23:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$119.26Apr 24, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$110.94Apr 22, 00:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?$2.50Apr 22, 00:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?$1.99Apr 22, 00:23 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?$0.02Apr 22, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?$0.30Apr 21, 15:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$0.00Apr 19, 21:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $30.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 19, 21:05 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 25, 21:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.