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OtherExpires Jan 1, 2028

Fluent FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Probability

1h

-0.1pp

24h

-14.3pp

24h Vol

$13.6K

Liquidity

$19.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:09
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 14pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 14776h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $19.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 14775.8h

    LOW
  • 13:09Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 14776h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:09Price

    Probability down -21.3pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -23.6pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -21.4pp

    to 0¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -23.9pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -23.9pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -23.6pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -24.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -7.8pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -7.3pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -7.6pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -8.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -9.0pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -8.3pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -24.1pp

    to 1¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -22.6pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -24.7pp

    to 2¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.8pp

    to 12¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.7pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.0pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.3pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.6pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.4pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 8¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.1pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.9pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.4pp

    to 9¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.7pp

    to 11¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fluent token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Fluent will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fluent (https://x.com/fluentxyz/photo) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jan 1, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).