Irritating-Builder
0xa0926fbc4a90e29e479b459ef92a147ebe5b11e3
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$80.5K
Total PnL
$-106.6K
Realised
$-4.9K
Win rate
33%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
57899 shares @ 68.6¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.3K
$4.5K
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
9815 shares @ 84.9¢·now 92.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$9.1K
$785.25
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
8084 shares @ 88.6¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.7K
$535.43
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
2770 shares @ 81.2¢·now 97.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.7K
$439.15
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
2722 shares @ 88.5¢·now 79.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.2K
$-257.68
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
1596 shares @ 89.9¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.5K
$88.56
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
1247 shares @ 78.1¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$110.30
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
1400 shares @ 66.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$972.86
$48.86
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
900 shares @ 84.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$850.50
$91.50
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1000 shares @ 78.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$780.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$7.72Jul 29, 09:16 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$6.48Jul 29, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$7.31Jul 29, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$268.40Jul 29, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$18.40Jul 29, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$268.40Jul 29, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$18.37Jul 29, 07:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$4.35Jul 29, 07:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$5.71Jul 29, 06:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$39.16Jul 29, 06:27 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?$262.81Jul 29, 06:22 UTC
- TRADESELLCuban regime falls in 2026?$361.49Jul 29, 05:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$1.01Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$899.98Jul 28, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$7.35Jul 28, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$40.50Jul 28, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$33.15Jul 28, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$7.35Jul 28, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$154.65Jul 28, 04:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $98.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 04:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 09:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.