Naughty-Vacation
0xa0993148b8d481bfafbbc784ba19a4fe25ccd81f
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
139
Open notional
$24.9K
Total PnL
$-3.6K
Realised
$-418.63
Win rate
38%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 139- YES
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
8999 shares @ 6.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$9.0K
$8.5K
- NO
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
4151 shares @ 82.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.8K
$425.82
- YES
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
3600 shares @ 49.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$3.6K
$1.8K
- YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
1972 shares @ 29.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$1.2K
- NO
Deel IPO before 2027?
1706 shares @ 67.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$486.35
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2500 shares @ 8.5¢·now 27.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$693.75
$481.25
- NO
Ramp IPO before 2027?
645 shares @ 75.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$590.17
$103.28
- NO
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?
562 shares @ 72.3¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$556.90
$150.52
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
1204 shares @ 61.3¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$523.61
$-214.35
- NO
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
510 shares @ 69.7¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$420.74
$65.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.08Aug 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Aug 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Aug 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Aug 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 31, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 30, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.07Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 00:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.