Chubby-Trust
0xa0e9e7676d20ddcefae6baca2ce51d1acebe1f00
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$579.94
Total PnL
$-5.4K
Realised
$31.36
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
4812 shares @ 15.6¢·now 5.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$262.28
$-489.76
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?
3406 shares @ 8.7¢·now 4.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$163.48
$-131.71
- YES
AI bubble burst in 2026?
498 shares @ 20.6¢·now 18.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$91.68
$-11.07
- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
500 shares @ 21.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.50
$-42.50
- NO
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
25606 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-244.66
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
7238 shares @ 27.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
5019 shares @ 40.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
643 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-101.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.00
$-167.76
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
210 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-25.20
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.57Jun 24, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?$170.37Jun 23, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?$1.72Jun 23, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?$1.87Jun 23, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$108.32Jun 22, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI bubble burst in 2026?$88.78Jun 22, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$6.59Jun 22, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$72.09Jun 22, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$59.23Jun 22, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?$4.25Jun 22, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December?$11.17Jun 22, 11:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$531.92Jun 22, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$23.00Jun 17, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$20.22Jun 16, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$507.00Jun 16, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$477.75Jun 16, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$397.80Jun 16, 00:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$77.90Jun 16, 00:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?$25.20Jun 16, 00:34 UTC
- REWARD$12.88Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $159.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 00:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.