Old-Fashioned-Personal
0xa1506a76f2e647159d94886397bc0f20abbabf80
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-73.10
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
5000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Vance say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" during his Rocky Mount visit?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-03-07?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Vance say "Gasoline" during his Rocky Mount visit?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Vance say "Israel" during his Rocky Mount visit?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Vance say "Fake News" during his Rocky Mount visit?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
849 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-15.89
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
105 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026?$1.61Apr 28, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 30, 2026?$0.80Apr 28, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 29, 2026?$2.59Apr 28, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?$2.00Apr 28, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?$3.00Apr 28, 09:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?$10.00Apr 24, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$1.39Apr 12, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?$1.00Apr 12, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?$1.00Apr 12, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.00Apr 12, 14:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Sentimental Value" win no awards at the Oscars?$0.00Apr 5, 14:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Apr 5, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$15.00Apr 5, 14:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Mar 28, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Southampton FC win on 2026-03-07?$1.00Mar 18, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.00Mar 18, 21:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Mar 18, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS recession by end of 2026?$1.01Mar 16, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.99Mar 16, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$0.98Mar 16, 06:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $4.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 22:06 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 28, 19:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.