Innocent-Ostrich
0xa25f207625cf0a6df529f94f234791d7f7452772
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$50.16
Total PnL
$-221.64
Realised
$15.47
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
310 shares @ 14.1¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.56
$-11.03
- YES
Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026?
100 shares @ 43.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.00
$-28.00
- YES
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
67 shares @ 45.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$1.84
$-28.31
- YES
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
44 shares @ 5.7¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.76
$-1.78
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
498 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-26.89
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
357 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- NO
Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be a QB?
300 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-47.00
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
268 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-23.89
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
142 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-15.65
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
140 shares @ 16.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-22.65
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $24.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 11:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.