Defensive-Cohesion
0xa264085072a945e8e9e00b28df04543efd3a3b18
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
80
Open notional
$403.19
Total PnL
$-957.15
Realised
$13.35
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- YES
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
122 shares @ 51.2¢·now 31.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$38.34
$-23.97
- YES
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
20 shares @ 57.1¢·now 93.7¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$18.73
$7.31
- NO
Will Aisha Farooqi be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?
20 shares @ 83.9¢·now 93.2¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$18.64
$1.86
- NO
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?
20 shares @ 86.6¢·now 88.2¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$17.64
$0.32
- NO
Will Daryl Parks win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
20 shares @ 71.8¢·now 88.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$17.60
$3.24
- NO
Will Evan Power be the FL-02 Republican nominee?
20 shares @ 74.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$16.50
$1.70
- NO
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
22 shares @ 66.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$15.62
$1.10
- NO
Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?
20 shares @ 72.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$14.80
$0.40
- NO
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
17 shares @ 86.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$14.11
$-0.51
- NO
Will Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?
17 shares @ 86.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$14.11
$-0.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?$1.05Jul 27, 06:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$1.4KJul 27, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$0.00Jul 27, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?$3.12Jul 27, 02:23 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?$10.39Jul 26, 08:45 UTC
- REDEEMUFC Fight Night: Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki (Lightweight, Main Card)$0.00Jul 25, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adam Murphy be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?$6.00Jul 25, 14:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)$196.36Jul 25, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?$14.52Jul 25, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by July 31?$11.25Jul 25, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)$52.62Jul 25, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC Fight Night: Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki (Lightweight, Main Card)$378.46Jul 25, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Evan Power be the FL-02 Republican nominee?$14.80Jul 23, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eric Chung be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?$14.62Jul 23, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by July 31?$3.75Jul 23, 06:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?$12.00Jul 23, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tom Horne be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?$14.00Jul 23, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?$20.00Jul 23, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Taylor Burks be the MO-05 Republican nominee?$2.43Jul 23, 04:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $56.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 06:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 06:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.