PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Aug 4, 2026

Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Probability

26¢

1h

+1.7pp

24h

+6.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$6.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

+17.2pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:56
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 6pp over 24h

    Now 26¢; +1.7pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 2405h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 11.2¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 2405.0h

    LOW
  • 18:57Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 2405h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+6.1pp over the last 24h, now 26¢.

Biggest hourly move: +26.1pp at 2d ago (to 33¢).

Show all 38 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · +6.4pp → 30¢
  • 15:00 · +4.3pp → 27¢
  • 11:00 · +3.5pp → 27¢
  • 09:00 · +5.9pp → 27¢
  • 08:00 · +7.6pp → 28¢
  • 06:00 · +3.6pp → 24¢
  • 05:00 · +9.8pp → 28¢
  • 03:00 · +20.9pp → 30¢
  • 02:00 · +20.5pp → 28¢
  • 00:00 · +20.6pp → 30¢
  • 22:00 · +22.3pp → 28¢
  • 21:00 · +23.9pp → 31¢
  • 20:00 · +20.6pp → 26¢
  • 1d ago · +15.5pp → 22¢
  • 1d ago · +12.5pp → 20¢
  • 1d ago · +22.2pp → 29¢
  • 1d ago · +25.1pp → 30¢
  • 1d ago · +23.5pp → 30¢
  • 1d ago · +22.6pp → 29¢
  • 1d ago · +23.2pp → 29¢
  • 1d ago · +22.8pp → 29¢
  • 1d ago · +22.8pp → 29¢
  • 2d ago · +21.4pp → 29¢
  • 2d ago · +20.3pp → 29¢
  • 2d ago · +26.1pp → 33¢
  • 2d ago · +22.5pp → 31¢
  • 2d ago · +21.0pp → 29¢
  • 2d ago · +21.0pp → 29¢
  • 2d ago · +21.1pp → 31¢
  • 2d ago · +20.6pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +22.0pp → 31¢
  • 2d ago · +19.1pp → 28¢
  • 2d ago · +17.9pp → 28¢
  • 2d ago · +19.1pp → 27¢
  • 2d ago · +19.3pp → 27¢
  • 2d ago · +18.9pp → 26¢
  • 2d ago · +14.5pp → 23¢
  • 3d ago · +14.3pp → 24¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventAZ-01 Republican Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 4, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in thAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
rnc.org
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (11.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket