0xa296451e97ab56cc22a8b5a67a2e3c7dedf59c36
0xa296451e97ab56cc22a8b5a67a2e3c7dedf59c36
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$169.57
Total PnL
$23.83
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
73 shares @ 92.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$72.82
$5.65
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
37 shares @ 50.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.81
$15.13
- NO
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
17 shares @ 86.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$17.06
$2.21
- NO
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
13 shares @ 83.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$12.02
$0.91
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
10 shares @ 93.5¢·now 95.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.32
$0.23
- NO
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?
6 shares @ 82.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.09
$1.04
- NO
Epstein client list released by June 30?
3 shares @ 86.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.67
$0.36
- YES
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.09
$0.07
- NO
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 82.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.52
$0.20
- NO
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$1.09
$0.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$1.02Jun 30, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$1.02Jun 30, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$1.02Jun 30, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Speed say "Six Seven" on stream?$0.00Jun 30, 06:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Speed say "Six Seven" on stream?$0.22Jun 30, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by July 31?$1.02Jun 30, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$1.02Jun 30, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Speed say "Six Seven" on stream?$1.02Jun 30, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Speed say "Six Seven" on stream?$1.02Jun 30, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Speed say "Six Seven" on stream?$1.02Jun 30, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Speed say "Six Seven" on stream?$1.02Jun 30, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$1.02Jun 30, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Speed say "Six Seven" on stream?$1.02Jun 30, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Speed say "Six Seven" on stream?$1.02Jun 30, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Speed say "Six Seven" on stream?$1.02Jun 30, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Speed say "Six Seven" on stream?$1.02Jun 30, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Speed say "Recover" on stream?$1.02Jun 30, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$1.02Jun 30, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS bank failure by June 30?$1.02Jun 28, 00:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 27?$5.22Jun 27, 23:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 08:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 08:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.