Virtual-Persimmon-Tights
0xa2dbde56d666d29e348905062ba280e034e4a60d
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$1.1K
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-140.31
Win rate
18%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
759 shares @ 82.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$315.00
$-307.41
- YES
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?
100 shares @ 75.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$65.50
$-9.50
- NO
Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
50 shares @ 92.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$44.50
$-1.50
- NO
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 and $335,000 on September 30?
50 shares @ 92.2¢·now 85.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$42.85
$-3.25
- YES
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?
50 shares @ 94.1¢·now 85.7¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$42.85
$-4.20
- NO
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
50 shares @ 85.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$41.75
$-0.75
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$40.77
$-4.22
- NO
Will CDU win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
50 shares @ 90.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$39.75
$-5.25
- NO
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
50 shares @ 77.3¢·now 75.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.92
$-0.73
- NO
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 89.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.50
$-7.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$42.50Jul 22, 05:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?$3.84Jul 22, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?$2.50Jul 22, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027?$2.50Jul 22, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?$2.00Jul 22, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the AZ-04 House seat?$7.50Jul 22, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5.5B by July 31?$1.00Jul 22, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat?$10.50Jul 22, 01:24 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.52Jul 22, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$67.37Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?$45.00Jul 21, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?$38.65Jul 21, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?$46.00Jul 21, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?$0.67Jul 21, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?$6.45Jul 21, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the FL-01 House seat?$2.85Jul 21, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$38.00Jul 21, 19:03 UTC
- REWARD$91.98Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?$40.00Jul 21, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Labour Party win the popular vote in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election by 5-10%?$18.60Jul 21, 17:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $24.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 01:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 05:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.